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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."